Press Release - June 1, 2025 - Capital .com.tr
Branded housing producers, who have had a hard time with declining housing sales for the last 5 years, are hopeful this year. They believe that the end of the tunnel is in sight...
However, the real recovery is expected in 2026. While big players are turning abroad for foreign currency earnings, they are cautious at home. While the number of existing projects in Turkey does not exceed 1-2, investments abroad reach millions of dollars. The primary goal is to melt stocks with campaigns and credit advantages.
Turkey is Europe's largest housing market with over 1 million home sales annually. Among OECD countries, it ranks second after the US. However, the sector has been bleeding for the last 5 years. The sharp decline that started in 2023 continued in the first months of 2024, almost locking the sector. As sales plummeted, companies without financial strength struggled, and only solid players were able to survive in the sector. Recently, the needle is slowly turning upwards. The upturn that started in the last quarter of 2024 has increased the sector's hope for recovery. With the prediction of a decline in housing loan interest rates, the sector is expected to become more active this year, especially after June. The "Emerging Trends in Real Estate" survey conducted by PwC and ULI also reveals that the real estate sector is "cautiously hopeful" this year against the uncertainties experienced. According to Konutder's survey, 31.8 percent of branded housing producers plan to increase production in the next six months. However, this rate was zero in the previous survey. Nevertheless, sector representatives warn: The real revival will not come before 2026. The increased activity in 2025 may only be a preparatory period for the real transformation.
FOREIGN ATTACK
In recent years, the stagnation in the domestic market and the search for foreign currency earnings have led branded housing producers abroad. Nef Chairman Erden Timur says that they are expanding their international investments with projects in Hamburg, Miami, Dubai and Brooklyn, and that they are making a difference globally with rental income and immediate delivery projects. Polat Gayrimenkul is also increasing the number of its housing projects abroad. Kaan Yücel, Member of the Board of Directors Responsible for Execution at Polat Gayrimenkul, says that they have realized two important projects worth a total of 523 million Euros in Hungary and that they will start new projects in Hungary, Germany and Greece this year. Özen Kuzu, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Kuzu Group, stated that they have been focusing on overseas projects in order to make the Turkish construction sector more visible in the global arena and that they increased their overseas investments last year. Pointing out that they aim to be more involved in the international market, Kuzu says that they plan to expand into the global market with strategic projects in the Middle East and Europe. Recently, Cyprus, Greece and Montenegro have also been targeted by housing producers. Stating that the total investment value of their projects in Cyprus is 40 million pounds, Hasan Bursalıoğlu, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Toros Invest, said, "We are planning to launch the new phases of our Hilltown Cyprus project this year. We have also accelerated our land development activities." Stating that they have completed a total of 8 housing projects in Greece, Platina Development Founder Ela Aydoğan Keskineğe said, "4 more new projects will come by the end of 2025. We anticipate that we will close the year with a total of 110 apartments and an investment of approximately 25 million Euros."
FIRST POSITIVE SIGNAL AFTER 5 YEARS
The last time 1.5 million houses were sold in Turkey was in 2020. Since then, housing sales have continued to decline and still have not reached the level of 5 years ago. With the decline in housing prices, the real estate market revived in the second half of 2024. According to TURKSTAT data, housing sales increased by 20.6 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 1 million 478 thousand 25. Saying that the real estate sector has left behind a challenging year, Fatih Erdoğan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Pacific Holding, states that the real estate market will revive with the decrease in interest rates. Stating that they expect the postponed housing investments to be realized this year, Erdoğan said, "There is a serious amount of inventory to be sold. Investors will return to real estate," he says. Pointing out that there are signs of recovery in the real estate sector in the second half of 2024, Nesil Aybar, Executive Board Member of Cushman & Wakefield I TR International, states that there is a significant movement in the Istanbul housing market. Stating that there has been a revival in the housing market in Anatolia and that second-hand houses continue to be in high demand, Aybar expects more activity in the housing market with the commissioning of new projects this year. "The most important reason for this is the decrease in the diversity of investment instruments, the lifting of the restriction on rent increases and the expectation of a decrease in interest rates," says Aybar. Saying that housing sales will increase and prices will rise this year, Köksal Yalçın, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bilginoğlu Group of Companies, states that the demand for houses in the 1.5-8 million TL band will be higher. Emphasizing that the increase in construction costs and the exchange rate have pushed housing prices up, Yalçın says, "The expectation of a price increase leads buyers to act quickly." Saying that they expect the recovery in the domestic market to continue this year, PMTR Group Chairman Şemsettin Aydın predicts that 2026 will be a year when the recovery in the sector will peak and sales and investments will increase.
DEFERRED DEMAND MOVEMENT
It is estimated that 1.6 million houses will be sold this year with the opening of credit taps. While a serious decrease is expected in the number of foreign investors, domestic investors are at the forefront of demand. Stating that they foresee a revival in the market with the decrease in housing loan interest rates, GYODER President Neşecan Çekici states that the demand will increase as the direction of interest rates turns down. EgeYapı REIT General Manager Didem Güneş, who says that they expect the postponed demand in the real estate sector to be activated this year, states that especially urban transformation projects will keep the sector alive. Hasan Bursalıoğlu, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Toros Invest, who agrees that there is an accumulated demand in the real estate sector in Turkey, draws attention to the possibility of insufficient supply in the face of this demand. Bursalıoğlu says, "This indicates that prices may again trend upwards." There are also those who think that there is a meaningful revival in non-branded houses that appeal to low and middle income. Ramadan Kumova, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Konutder, says, "We believe that investors who earn from investments such as interest, stock market, gold, crypto, etc. tend to buy with the prediction that housing prices will increase." Kumova, on the other hand, states that the rate of mortgaged sales remains below the 50 percent level that should normally be at 14 percent. In addition, the launch of the Project Real Estate Investment Funds was an important development for the sector. Stating that the sector's need to borrow from banks will decrease thanks to the funds, Kumova said, "At the same time, small investors who cannot buy a house will be able to earn income based on house price increases by buying shares from these funds. PYGFs will play an important role in spreading the capital to the bottom and bringing the money under the pillow into the economy."
NEW INVESTMENTS CAUTIOUS
While branded housing producers used to carry out 3-4 housing projects at the same time in the past, they have been postponing new projects recently. Those who cannot postpone them limit them to one or two projects. The contraction in supply is also reflected in TURKSTAT figures. In the second quarter of 2024, the number of buildings with building permits decreased by 22.7 percent, the number of apartments by 28.9 percent and the surface area by 30.9 percent. TOKİ and Kiptaş are making the biggest investments in this period. Saying that they aim to produce more than 11,500 independent units in 16 different locations, Ali Kurt, Chairman of the Board of Directors of IBB Urbanization Group and Kiptaş, states that 44 billion TL will be invested for this. "Our long-term goal is to produce 50 thousand independent units by the end of the second term," says Kurt. Contrary to the general trend, there are also those who do not prefer to keep the number of domestic projects low. Artaş, Pasifik GYO, Yiğit Group and Algün İnşaat are among the groups planning many projects this year. Süleyman Çetinsaya, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Artaş Holding, who said that despite the stagnation in the sector last year, they completed 6 real estate projects and sold a total of 1,100 independent units, states that they will start 4 new projects and aim to produce approximately 4 thousand houses this year. Stating that they completed 5 housing projects in 2024 and that the construction of 7 projects is ongoing this year, Cihat Algün, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Algün Construction, said that they will start two new projects in Ataşehir and Beylerbeyi with a total investment value of 34.5 billion TL and said, "We will offer 2,250 units for sale with new projects." Önder Yiğit, Vice President of Yiğit Group, emphasizes that they continue their projects despite interest rate hikes and rising costs. Stating that three projects with a total investment value of 12 billion TL are ongoing in Istanbul, Yiğit says that they will start two new projects in the development process this year and their investment value will be 10 billion TL.
URBAN TRANSFORMATION TO ACCELERATE
One of the most important agenda items for the sector this year is the acceleration of urban transformation. Founded 3 years ago, the Istanbul Renewal Platform focuses on the renewal of single buildings by entering neighborhoods. Ali Kurt, Chairman of the Board of Directors of IBB Urbanization Group and Kiptaş, said that they have taken steps that will save the lives of many people by accelerating urban transformation efforts, adding that Istanbul Renewal has received more than 35 thousand applications as of January 10. "The applications cover more than 1.8 million people in over 500 thousand independent units," says Kurt. This year, in addition to urban transformation, sustainability, green investments, digitalization and the use of new earthquake-resistant technologies stand out in the real estate sector. Especially properties with high energy efficiency and low environmental risks are the focus of investors. In addition, buildings with new technologies such as earthquake-resistant steel buildings are expected to become widespread. Melih Şimşek, Chairman of the Board of Consera and Vice Chairman of the Turkish Structural Steel Association, says that the use of steel in industrial buildings in Turkey has increased from 1 percent to 5 percent in 20 years, and emphasizes that this rate is low in residential buildings. Stating that all cities, especially Istanbul, should be prepared for possible earthquakes with steel buildings, Şimşek said, "We want to spread a sustainable construction and building system to the whole country. The structural steel sector has the infrastructure to produce at least 300 thousand houses a year."
DEMAND FOR ACCESSIBLE HOUSING IS HIGH
SMALL HOUSES ARE PREFERRED
In the second half of 2024, the increase in demand was for affordable and small-square-meter houses. The same trend is expected to continue in the coming period. Stating that the demand for houses with prices between 3 million and 5 million TL will increase by around 20 percent in this period, Cihat Algün, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Algün Construction, says, "The segment that expects to buy a house but postpones its demand due to market conditions will take action when the opportunity to own a house at reasonable levels emerges."
FAMILY STRUCTURE CHANGED
Süleyman Çetinsaya, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Artaş Holding, states that due to the change in family structure, increasing construction costs and rising house prices, there is a tendency towards smaller residences instead of large square meter apartments. Emphasizing that the demand for 1+1 and 2+1 apartments has increased recently, Çetinsaya says that more compact options are preferred in 3+1 apartments.
NEW TARGET
Major housing producers, especially Kiptaş, aim to increase the number of affordable housing units with new housing investments this year. Kiptaş has 6,515 independent units in 26 ongoing projects this year. Ali Kurt, Chairman of the Board of Directors of IBB Urbanization Group and Kiptaş, says their new projects are in Kadıköy, Kartal, Gaziosmanpaşa, Bakırköy, Sarıyer, Fatih, Eyüpsultan, Sultangazi, Pendik, Küçükçekmece, Maltepe, Ataşehir and Arnavutköy.
1 MILLION HOUSES IN STOCK
45 PERCENT IN BIG CITIES
Stating that there are approximately 900 thousand to 1 million housing stocks for sale in Turkey, Emlakjet CEO Tolga İdikat says that approximately 45 percent of this stock is located in big cities such as Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. İdikat expects a meltdown in the housing stock this year with the decrease in interest rates and the introduction of new advantageous housing loans. KPMG Turkey Construction and Real Estate Sector Leader Görkem Yapan, who says that there are nearly 1 million houses waiting to be sold in Turkey, points out that the housing supply in the sector is concentrated around 2+1 and 3+1 bedroom houses.
150 THOUSAND LUXURY RESIDENCES
Stating that approximately 150 thousand of the houses on sale in Turkey are in the luxury class, Köksal Yalçın, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bilginoğlu Group of Companies, says that a total of 142 thousand new houses are waiting to be offered for sale in the portfolio of large construction companies.
NEW PROJECTS AFTER 2026
Albayrak Beton Chairman of the Board of Directors Erdal Albayrak, who says that 4 housing projects with a total investment amount of 1.5 billion TL are ongoing in Çekmece and Şile, emphasizes that they will continue the construction and sales of their existing projects this year. Stating that they have no new project plans for this year, Albayrak says that they are targeting new projects in 2026 and 2027.
INTEREST IN LAND INVESTMENT DOUBLED
AFFORDABLE
Interest in land investments has been increasing rapidly in recent years. According to Emlakjet data, this increase in demand, which started in 2023, gained momentum in 2024 and doubled. One of the main reasons for this interest is that land is more affordable than houses and offers high profitability potential in the long term.
MARMARA AND AEGEAN IN FIRST PLACE Small-scale agricultural lands, especially in the Marmara and Aegean Regions, are attracting great interest. Tolga İdikat, CEO of Emlakjet, states that according to their recent user survey, 57 percent of their users are considering investing in land. Of this group, 45 percent plan to invest in land to build their dream home.
DOUBLING TO 2 TIMES
Nef Chairman Erden Timur says that they have achieved a significant success in the sector by selling 3.5 million square meters of land in the last two years. "On the land side, we have a wide reach in the local and global markets with 33 offices in Turkey, 9 offices in Germany and a portfolio of 27 million square meters," he says. Stating that they aim to double the number of customers in land sales, Timur says that they continue to support the purchasing power of consumers with interest rates and maturity options.